Do you know the probability of developing cardiovascular disease within 10 years?
2022.08.01
What is the probability of having a myocardial infarction or cerebral infarction within 10 years?
Myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction, which can cause sudden death, are diseases caused by progression of arteriosclerosis. There are tools (apps, websites) that can tell you what the probability is of these happening in the near future.
But it’s not like fortune-telling. It was developed on the basis of evidence. If you enter the items measured in a health checkup, it will tell you, “Your probability of having a myocardial infarction or cerebral infarction within 10 years is –%.” Does it worry you?
Korerisu-kun, a risk assessment tool of the Japan Atherosclerosis Society
One is “Korerisu-kun” (https://www.j-athero.org/jp/general/ge_tool/).
This is an arteriosclerotic disease prediction tool developed based on the “Arteriosclerotic Disease Prevention Guidelines 2022” of the Japan Atherosclerosis Society. The app version and the web version are introduced on the website of the society.
The contents of both are the same: age, gender, smoking habits, blood pressure, presence or absence of abnormal glucose tolerance, HDL cholesterol level, and LDL cholesterol level
— if you enter the information, they will assess your risk.
They will inform you of the following three things:
・Whether the risk is high or low.
・Probability of developing arteriosclerotic disease (coronary artery disease such as myocardial infarction and arteriosclerotic cerebral infarction) within 10 years
How many times more likely you are to develop the disease than people of the same age and sex who are at the lowest risk.
“Hisayama Genki Yoho” tells you the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease
Another tool is the Hisayama Genki Forecast (https://hgy-fukuoka. jp/).
This is a web tool that allows you to check gender, age, height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, presence or absence of hypertension, HbA1c (one of the indicators of blood sugar level), fasting blood sugar, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and family history of diabetes on the web. If you enter your history, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and exercise habits, you will get the results. There are a few more items than Korerisukun.
The Hisayama Genki Forecast predicts the likelihood of developing diabetes and
cardiovascular disease. Both predict how many times more likely you are to be affected than people of the same age, and what the probability is of developing the disease after 5 years and 10 years. In addition, the vascular age is also indicated.
Ways to deal with lifestyle-related diseases that are effective for you
The usefulness of Korerisu-kun and Hisayama Genki Forecast is that it not only tells us about the risk of developing the disease, but also allows us to carry out simulations.
For example, go back to the input screen and try asking, “Will your risk change if you lower your blood pressure by 10?”, “If you make exercise a habit…”, “If you quit smoking…”, “If you lose weight”, etc. If you try a lot of options and find something that significantly lowers your risk, that’s what works for you.
Make use of medical examination results
Do you get a health checkup every year? Are the people getting one using it effectively?
Let’s understand the “future risk” anticipated from the results, rather than just choosing oversimplified judgment results such as A, B, C… or indicating being happy or sad. It is important to think about how to reduce that risk.
Tools such as Korerisu-kun and Hisayama Genki Yoho are useful for understanding future risks and considering countermeasures.
For those of you who have already undergone a health check-up, but are done with just looking at the results, please do a risk assessment once. Just fill it out online and get results in minutes.
◎ Reference
Taku Asano “If you “select” and “visualize” to extend your healthy life expectancy, you can choose “rationally”” (KADOKAWA)
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4041122465